Delayed CBOE tape + Treasury / CAPE / Fear & Greed. Not advice. Skills encoded: pre-market gate, four-pillar crash-risk dashboard, FTM scanner, ticker + Tom Nash DCA, 25–45 DTE credit spreads (0.08–0.20Δ, beyond 1σ, no entry 2–3d before FOMC/CPI/NFP), 1–6 DTE naked longs, 90Δ DITM calls.
00 · Pre-market checklist
Caution
Confidence 66/100
SPX
7707.98 (+0.21%)
CBOE delayed
VIX
14.89
Orderly
Nearest support
7528
50-day / weekly low
Nearest resistance
7799
50-day / weekly high
Expected move (trade)
±216 pts
straddle
Fear & Greed
62 · Greed
Entry rule 6
Shiller CAPE
42.1
Valuation High
10s–2s
+46 bp
08/19/2026
Next macro
NFP · Sep 4
16d
Bullish/Neutral — favor put credit spreads. Medium risk. Tighten size or skip unless distance and the 2–3 day event window are clean.
- Credit-spread recommender is green. Confirm mids on the ladder, then size ≤ 1–2% of capital.
- US cash session is not open — plan, don't send.
- For a name-specific long, run ticker analyst (technicals + Tom Nash DCA) before DITM or naked.
01 · Crash-risk dashboard
Cautious
56
Composite
Medium composite — valuation is the drag. Size down, go further OTM, or skip.
Medium risk. Tighten size or skip unless distance and the 2–3 day event window are clean.
Bullish/Neutral — favor put credit spreads
Valuation
HighValuation is the heaviest weight. Rich multiples argue for smaller size and further OTM shorts.
Shiller CAPE
Danger zone >35
SPX trailing P/E
Rich vs ~16 long-run mean
Buffett indicator
Market cap / GDP strongly overvalued
Technical & breadth
LowUptrend — above 20 / 50 / 200
VIX
Orderly
Vol term
Contango — premium-selling weather
SPX vs MAs
50d 7528 · 200d 7088
IWM vs SPX
Risk appetite in small caps
RSP vs SPX
Breadth participating
Economic
LowCurve and credit are not the constraint.
10s–2s
4.19% / 4.65% · 08/19/2026
HYG
Credit risk-on
Sentiment
MediumSentiment is usable for a mechanical income entry.
Fear & Greed
Not an extreme reading
NDX vs SPX
Growth lagging
Catalysts · next 6 weeks
Orderly vol
Contango — premium selling weather
Risk appetite in small caps
Vol-of-vol calm
Typical crash-hedge premium
Credit risk-on
Duration
-0.93%
Growth lagging
SPX
7,707.98
+0.21%
NDX
29,426.02
-0.22%
RUT
3,032.94
+0.50%
VIX
14.89
-6.38%
VIX9D
12.66
-7.35%
VVIX
86.53
-7.33%
SKEW
142.93
-0.47%
UUP
27.88
-0.93%
HYG
79.71
+0.23%
LQD
106.57
+0.69%
TLT
82.99
+1.64%
IWM
301.72
+0.49%
QQQ
718.76
-0.20%
SMH
565.46
-1.58%
GLD
413.84
+3.69%
USO
130.91
+0.19%
IBIT
39.30
+5.62%
RSP
222.07
+1.03%
02 · Follow the money
Accumulation vs distribution vs SPY, plus sector rotation.
Sector rotation · 5d vs SPY
Leadership Health Care (+3.18%) · laggard Semis (-1.79%).
XLV
Health Care
+3.18%
1d +3.18%
XLY
Discretionary
+1.67%
1d +1.67%
XLP
Staples
+0.90%
1d +0.90%
IWM
Small cap
+0.28%
1d +0.28%
XLU
Utilities
-0.21%
1d -0.21%
XLE
Energy
-0.37%
1d -0.37%
XLF
Financials
-0.84%
1d -0.84%
XLI
Industrials
-1.10%
1d -1.10%
XLK
Technology
-1.29%
1d -1.29%
SMH
Semis
-1.79%
1d -1.79%
Candidates · 1d vs volume
| Symbol | Last | Day | vs SPY | Volume | Setup | Bias | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AVGO Semis · Broadcom | 365.80 | -4.83% | -5.04% | 35.1M | PUT | Bear · high | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
TSLA Discretionary · Tesla | 350.80 | +4.06% | +3.85% | 36.7M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
NVDA Semis · NVIDIA | 218.85 | -1.00% | -1.21% | 96.8M | PUT | Bear · high | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
HOOD Financials · Robinhood | 98.32 | +4.43% | +4.22% | 25.2M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
AAPL Technology · Apple | 317.00 | +2.15% | +1.94% | 50.5M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
NFLX Communication · Netflix | 80.35 | +3.05% | +2.84% | 31.5M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
AMZN Discretionary · Amazon | 266.69 | +2.40% | +2.19% | 35.8M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
TLT Rates · Long bonds | 82.99 | +1.64% | +1.43% | 51.3M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
AMD Semis · AMD | 469.43 | -3.85% | -4.06% | 19.2M | PUT | Bear · high | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
PLTR Technology · Palantir | 175.63 | +2.08% | +1.87% | 36.1M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
GLD Metals · Gold | 413.84 | +3.69% | +3.49% | 17.4M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
XLV Health Care · Health Care | 175.68 | +3.39% | +3.18% | 16.5M | CALL | Bull · high | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
XLF Financials · Financials | 57.48 | -0.63% | -0.84% | 35.6M | PUT | Bear · high | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
SMH Semis · Semis | 565.46 | -1.58% | -1.79% | 8.7M | PUT | Bear · medium | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
XLY Discretionary · Discretionary | 118.59 | +1.88% | +1.67% | 7.5M | CALL | Bull · medium | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
JPM Financials · JPMorgan | 357.90 | -1.68% | -1.89% | 6.7M | PUT | Bear · medium | Follow-through offer vs SPY — distribution tape. |
QQQ Index · Nasdaq 100 ETF | 718.76 | -0.20% | -0.41% | 35.8M | QUIET | Mixed · low | No confluence. |
XLP Staples · Staples | 86.54 | +1.11% | +0.90% | 11.2M | CALL | Bull · medium | Follow-through bid vs SPY — accumulation tape. |
03 · Analyze SPX
Neutral bias
7,707.98
+0.21%
Prev close
7,707.98
Day range
7,700–7,744
20 / 50 / 200
7,620 / 7,528 / 7,088
52-week
4,983–7,799
RSI 14
73
ATR 14
42.6
ATR vs 50-MA
4.2×
Overextended
IV30 / RV20
12.0 / 13.6
IV rank
6%
1D EM 48 pts
Uptrend — above 20 / 50 / 200
- SPX 7707.98 (+0.21%) · IV30 12.0 · IV rank 6.
- MAs: 20d 7620 · 50d 7528 · 200d 7088. Uptrend — above 20 / 50 / 200.
- RSI 73 — stretched. Prefer further OTM puts or skip chasing.
- ATR extension 4.2× from 50-MA — no aggressive new longs.
- Implied (12.0) vs realized (13.6) is tight. Don’t oversize.
- 1-day 1σ move ≈ 48 pts. 26D expected move ≈ 247 pts.
04 · Credit spread
Bull put 7,350 / 7,250
SPX Sep 18 · 30 DTE · 100-wide · SPX
Credit (mid)
6.40
$640 / contract
Max loss
93.60
$9,360
ROC
7%
POP 86%
Buffer
358 pts
1.7× straddle 1σ
Breakeven
7,343.6
Credit / width
6%
Target 20–30%
Short IV
16.8%
Criteria 6/7
1. DTE 25–45
30 DTE · SPX Sep 18
2. Short delta 0.08–0.20
14Δ short
3. Beyond 1σ expected move + S/R
358 pts / 216 1σ (straddle) · S/R 7528
4. Credit ≈ 20–30% of width
6% of 100-wide
5. Sentiment not extreme
Fear & Greed / VIX not in the tails
6. No major event in 2–3 days
NFP in 16d (Sep 4)
7. Dashboard risk supportive
Cautious
- Put credit — short 7350 (14Δ) sits 358 pts below spot.
- SPX Sep 18 · 30 DTE · 100-wide · mid credit 6.40 (6% of width).
- 1σ expected move 216 pts (straddle, 2.8%). Buffer 1.66×.
- Mechanical rules 1, 2, 3, and 7 hold. Defined-risk theta, not a hero trade.
- Take profit at 50–60% of max credit, or when remaining credit is 40–50% of what you received — whichever comes first.
- Underlying touches the short strike → exit or roll only if still >21 DTE and bias intact.
- Spread value doubles the credit → full exit.
- Below 21 DTE → close. Do not hold to expiration.
- Never roll for a debit. Prefer close + reopen fresh.
Alternatives
05 · Naked long
No trade
No directional conviction — naked long needs a clear side
06 · DITM call
No trade
DITM calls require a clean bullish bias — mixed/bearish is a hard skip
07 · Ticker + DCA
Jeff Sun execution rules + Tom Nash 1x/2x/3x zone. Search any US name.
SPY · S&P 500 ETF
Uptrend — above 20 / 50 / 200
769.06
+0.21%
20 / 50 / 200
760.2 / 751.1 / 707.2
RSI 14
73
RVOL
—
52-week
632.9–778.1
DCA zone
1x Normal DCA Zone
1× this period
Drawdown
1.2%
from 778.14
RS vs SPY 5d
—
LoD / ATR
23%
- SPY 769.06 (+0.21%) · RSI 73 · RVOL —.
- MAs: 20d 760.25 · 50d 751.08 · 200d 707.16. Uptrend — above 20 / 50 / 200.
- ATR extension 4.2× from 50-MA — Jeff Sun hard rule: no aggressive new entries.
- Distance from LoD is 23% of ATR — acceptable (<60%).
- Tom Nash DCA: 1x Normal DCA Zone (1.2% off the 52-week high 778.14).
Desk briefing
User-initiated Grok pass over the live snapshot — gate, risk, FTM, SPX, income, directional.